Responding to Trump’s Economic Assertions in Graphs
A constant theme of Donald Trump is that he has greatly improved the economy of the United States. He asserts this mostly by asserting it. Unfortunately, he has many supporters who believe his assertions based, evidently, on his assertions. The President’s Budget for fiscal year 2021 contends that, if all of his programs are passed by Congress, the economy will grow at an annual rate of 3 percent. That this has not happened at all seems not to deter his supporters.
I am not an economist. Instead, I am an ordinary citizen who takes the time to read things. So in the following blog, I would like to present my rebuttal to the “Trump Economic Miracle,” a miracle that doesn’t exists. As with all my blogs, I welcome comment and correction from knowledgeable persons. I would especially welcome input from economists. 
1. Gross Domestic Product (GDP)
President Trump asserts, with some hyperbole, that we have “the greatest economy in history.” This claim, like many others he makes, is simply untrue. If we measure growth of the economy by growth in GDP, this claim is very refutable. 
Indeed, we know live in the longest economic recovery in U.S. history, at about 127 months. However, GDP has not expanded the most in this recovery. The below chart, complied by CNBC, and based on data from the St Louis Federal Reserve, demonstrates that many previous expansions have seen a larger growth in GDP. The labels indicate the month the particular recoveries began. 
2. GDP Growth
https://fm-static.cnbc.com/awsmedia/chart/2019/6/1/image%20(20).1562014151193.png?
That said, Trumpian pronouncements are usually ground in recent history. When he says “greatest ever,” he usually means “compared to the Obama years.” But even this is not the case. Since the so-called Great Recession ended, and the economic recovery began in 2009, there has been a steady growth in GDP. The average quarterly growth in GDP during the Obama years was around 2.1 percent. During the Trump years, the average quarterly growth has been slightly better, at somewhere around 2.5 percent. But is 3 percent growth a realistic possibility? 
3. Real GDP, Chained Dollars.
4. Change in GDP
Donald Trump likes to brag about unemployment being the lowest in 50 years. That is true. But once again, his “point in time” thinking omits the simple fact that this is part of a decade-long trend. If unemployment creeps up again in 2020, will he blame Obama?
5. Unemployment Trend (U-3)
The Stock Market
6. Standard & Poors 500 Index 1930 to Present (Sources Macrotrends at https://www.macrotrends.net/2324/sp-500-historical-chart-data)
C:\Users\jharrold\Downloads\sp-500-historical-chart-data-2020-02-04-macrotrends.png
The above graphic might be something Trump can brag about. The stock market has, in fact, grown since 2017. What is interesting is that in the chart below, it is apparent that in terms of percent of change, the first months of the Obama administration saw larger growth that in the Trump administration. 
7. Standard & Poors 500 Index by Presidents Bush, Obama, and Trump  (Source: Macrotrends at https://www.macrotrends.net/2324/sp-500-historical-chart-data)C:\Users\jharrold\Downloads\-2020-02-04-macrotrends.png
8. Federal Revenues and Outlays as Percent of GDP (Source: Tax Policy Center)
The 2017 tax law lowered taxes, and President Trump takes credit for this. What he never takes credit for is the growing gap between revenue and outlays. The national debt has grown to more than $23 trillion. In fact, we have a structural debt crisis in the United States, and will continue to have one until we can find a way to make revenues and expenditures roughly equal one another. Debt did increase immediately in the Obama administration, but declined slightly during his term. The 2017 tax law exacerbated the deficit, and thus the debt. 
9. Federal Receipts versus Outlays
10. Imports versus Exports
Trump came into office with the U.S. trade imbalance as his signature issue. Despite creating all kinds of noise with tariffs and the throwing out of multilateral trade accords, trade imbalance has not improved. In fact, we have more of a trade imbalance now, than when Trump took office. 
11. Trade Imbalance

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